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Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

November 12 - 14
Las Vegas
National Remarketing Conference

November 19 - 20
New York City
Barclays Global Automotive Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Helping customers accelerate their business performance

Since 2005, Manheim Consulting has conducted research and performance studies for the company’s largest dealer and commercial clients, while providing a broader perspective on the industry at large for those who follow the automotive sector. Our team leverages our industry-leading data set to illuminate new remarketing trends, optimize location or sales channel utilization, benchmark client performance against peers, publish studies on leading practices, and bring macroeconomic trends into remarketing context.

Got a question? Contact us.


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Wholesale Prices Decline Again in August

Fundamentals, and history, now suggest the Index will move into an extended period below trend. However, we do not expect that the coming deviation from trend will be as pronounced as the 10% underperformance in early 2003 or 17% shortfall that occurred in December 2008. In both of those instances, a weakening economy and tight credit amplified the normal cyclical swing in wholesale pricing. Today, employment growth is improving and retail credit conditions remain favorable.

Read more

121.8     0.4%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
August 2014

Click to Zoom

January 1995 = 100


Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

Order Now

2014ucmr

Whitepaper-large

Impact of Delayed Titles at Auction

Roughly 35% of all vehicles at auction are sold without the physical presence of a title. When broken out by seller type, over 90% of all commercial sales are conducted with a title, while only 42.3% of dealer sales are. The seller must announce lack of title as the car runs down the lane, or on the online posting, so the buyer’s awareness of the absence may affect the sale and auction performance. This study found that conversion rate more than doubles when the physical title is present.

Read the full report


Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

November 12 - 14
Las Vegas
National Remarketing Conference

November 19 - 20
New York City
Barclays Global Automotive Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Publications

Manheim Consulting clients have improved their remarketing performance by challenging our analytical staff. Read the conclusions of just a few of these in-depth studies.


Auto Industry Brief

AutobriefAugust 2014 Auto Industry Brief
The U.S. economy is a duck in the water. Appearances suggest it is moving slowly and serenely toward a planned destination. Reality is that it's paddling furiously and will drift aimlessly once tired. Meanwhile, the snapping turtles of geopolitical threats multiply. Any one of them is more than capable of pulling the duck under in a heartbeat.

June 2014
It's time to "roll out those lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer." And they will indeed be lazy (continued subpar economic growth), hazy (no definitive directional turns), and crazy (think "not normal" as opposed to "new normal").

May 2014
When data for first-quarter GDP are revised, there's a strong likelihood that the economy will have contracted.

April 2014
First-quarter earnings reports suggest the economy might be setting up for acceleration in the months ahead.


Case Studies

CasestudyVehicle Odor Impact on Auction Price
Many consignors struggle with the negative impact vehicle smoke or foul odor has on auction prices. Manheim Consulting quantified the auction price deterioration caused by odor noted on the condition report.

Consignors Increase Returns by Selling Ample Volume Alongside Peers
Manheim Consulting determined that consignors selling at least 20 units per sale at the same time as peers boosted returns and drew potential buyers into the lane.


Presentations

Tom-webb_smallTom Webb is a frequent speaker at automotive and economic conferences. His PowerPoint presentations enable the reader to understand the impact of macro trends on the vehicle markets. Please visit this website periodically to view Tom's latest presentations.

Residual Risks Residing in the Recesses of the “Recovery”, September 17, 2013

Manheim Market Report: Leveraging Analytics in Remarketing, 2012 National Remarketing Conference


White Papers

WhitepaperImpact of Delayed Titles at Auction
Conversion rate more than doubles when the physical title is present.



Certification Impact on Auction Values
The case seems to indicate that one way to increase vehicle retention is to certify qualifying vehicles.

Condition Report Impact on Dealer Sales
Condition reports impact three areas of dealer sales: Simulcast reach, the ability to attract buyers, and arbitration rates.

Rental Detail ROI
Manheim Consulting determined the ROI on varying levels of detail service: no detail, wash and vac, and full detail.

Effects of Color on MMR Retention
This study examines if color impacts auction results, which is important to rental and other fleet consignors as these companies have a degree of control over their inventory.

Simulcast Bid Impact Study
Manheim Consulting examines the impacts of online bidding and the main drivers to attract online bids.

Starting Price and Floors Effect on Bids
This paper examined the most effective starting price for vehicles offered online in order to achieve the highest sales price and sales ratios.

Financial Implications of "No Sales" and Multiple Registrations
This white paper analyzes the reduction in transaction prices that results when a vehicle is a "no sale" and is registered in subsequent sales.

InSight ECR and Reconditioning
This white paper demonstrates the improvement of accuracy the Insight ECR decimal point grading system produces when measuring reconditioning returns.

Attributes of Vehicles with High Success in Online Selling
Adding an additional selling channel can increase the number of bids on a unit, driving up sales price while also lowering days to sell, and thus reducing depreciation and holding costs.

Quarterly Conference Call

Next Conference Call
Oct 7

You are invited to join Tom Webb, Manheim's chief economist and the compiler of the Index, as he discusses the major economic and industry trends that have shaped the quarter. Tom will also take your questions following the presentation.

Telephone:

Conf. ID:

Title:

1-888-300-2343

9229897

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

For questions or to RSVP for the quarterly conference call, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Tom's presentation will be available one hour before the conference call.
View the July Presentation

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

November 12 - 14
Las Vegas
National Remarketing Conference

November 19 - 20
New York City
Barclays Global Automotive Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold.

The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.


Wholesale Prices Decline Again in August

Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) declined 0.7% in August. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and brought the August Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reading to 121.8, down 0.4% from a year ago.

The recent downward movement in wholesale pricing reflects:

  • A reversion to trend levels after an extended period of exceptionally strong pricing;
  • Increased wholesale supplies; and
  • In recent months, moderating retail demand.

Wholesale used vehicle values: Back to trend levels. August’s 121.8 Index reading put it right on the trend line for the entire series back to 1995. (The trend line naturally has an upward slope since the Index represents a dollar amount, not a residual percentage.)

Fundamentals, and history, now suggest the Index will move into an extended period below trend. However, we do not expect that the coming deviation from trend will be as pronounced as the 10% underperformance in early 2003 or 17% shortfall that occurred in December 2008. In both of those instances, a weakening economy and tight credit amplified the normal cyclical swing in wholesale pricing. Today, employment growth is improving and retail credit conditions remain favorable.

New vehicle sales: August was a scorcher. New cars and light duty trucks sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.4 million in August – the fastest pace since 2006. Sure, the quaint selling-day adjustment and an early Labor Day artificially boosted the pace a modest amount. As a result, expect some pullback in September’s selling rate; but also consider the longer-term trend. The annualized selling rate over the past three months was 16.9 million, over the past six months it was 16.6 million, and over the first eight months of this year it has averaged 16.3 million.

And these strong sales have not been the result of fleet sales. Total new vehicle sales into fleet rose by 13.5% in August, but year-to-date fleet sales are up only 3.8% versus a 5.5% increase in retail deliveries.

Used vehicle sales pace weakens, but profits are still good. Retail used unit sales by dealers declined in August for the third consecutive month – and last month’s falloff was more than 9%, according to CNW. Nevertheless, we continue to hear positive comments from dealers that turn rates are good and net margins are strong. Thus, although slightly more selective, dealers are still aggressively seeking appropriate inventory. But, with new vehicle sales so strong, keep in mind that for franchised dealers a lot of great inventory is literally being driven to their door every day in the form of trade-ins and lease turn-ins.

Rental risk prices ease from record highs. Auction prices for rental risk units (unadjusted for mix and mileage) declined for the fourth consecutive month in August. The average price is now off approximately $1,200 from the all-time high reach in April, but down less than $300 from a year ago. The index of rental risk pricing that adjusts for changes in mix and mileage was down $1,610 from its March peak and down $470 from a year ago.

Volumes sold at auction remained low in August, and average mileage slipped back below 40,000. With new vehicle sales into rental up 10% in August, some increased flow back into the wholesale market is inevitable, whether it is via the traditional auction process or some other channel.

Pickups and vans remain segment leaders. Mileage and seasonally adjusted prices for major market classes showed only pickups and vans (especially cargo vans) up year-over-year. Luxury cars remained the segment with the largest decline in wholesale pricing over the past year, but the pace of decline for this segment in August was not out of line with the overall market.

Price movements in August reflect shifting wholesale supplies. Our analysis of average mileage by price tiers showed that the strongest pricing in August remained in the $13,000 to $15,000 range, whereas the weakest pricing was in the $9,000 to $10,000 range. These trends were strongly consistent with the underlying shifts in auction availability.

121.8     0.4%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
August 2014

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-linegraph0814

January 1995 = 100

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-webtable0814

January 1995 = 100



Price Changes for Selective Market Classes

Click to Zoom
Pricechangesforselectivemarket-bargraph0814

August 2014 vs. August 2013


Index Release Dates

Manheim Consulting releases the latest update of its Used Vehicle Value Index on the fifth business day of each month. To receive a monthly reminder about this update, as well as reminders for Tom Webb's quarterly conference calls, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

November 12 - 14
Las Vegas
National Remarketing Conference

November 19 - 20
New York City
Barclays Global Automotive Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

Order Now
2014ucmr

Consulting-ucmr-screenshot

Past Used Car Market Reports

2013 Used Car Market Report Order Now
2012 Used Car Market Report View
2011 Mid-Year Used Car Market Report View
2011 Used Car Market Report View
2010 Used Car Market Report View
2009 Used Car Market Report View
2008 Used Car Market Report View
2007 Used Car Market Report View
2006 Used Car Market Report View

Where to Find Us

November 12 - 14
Las Vegas
National Remarketing Conference

November 19 - 20
New York City
Barclays Global Automotive Conference

Services

Manheim Consulting: Your Partner for Remarketing Services

Manheim Consulting is dedicated to helping our Commercial and Dealer customer improve their remarketing performance. Our team accesses the extensive database represented by the more than 10 million vehicles posted annually online or run in Manheim auction lanes. We apply data mining, targeted research, competitive benchmarking, and quantitative analyses to provide our clients with unbiased reporting and strategic advice.


Powered by Professionals

Manheim Consulting is built on the knowledge and experience of its team of consultants. Over the years, Manheim Consulting has established itself as a trusted advisor to the automotive industry. Professionals from a diverse set of backgrounds help develop a perspective that is truly unparalleled in the industry.

Got a question? Contact us.


Our Team



Tomwebb


Tom Webb
Chief Economist

Tom Webb joined Manheim as chief economist in 2001, bringing to the position his unique understanding of the automotive retail and wholesale industries. As the chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association for 26 years, Tom was already recognized for his authoritative research and commentary on economic trends and their impact on vehicle demand. At Manheim, Tom continues in his role as commentator on the economy and vehicle markets and is a frequent guest at Manheim client and automotive events, in the media and as a contributor to automotive and remarketing publications.

Tom has a degree in Economics from the University of Wyoming and did graduate work in Economics at Georgetown University.


Nancyhillmanheim


Nancy Hill
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

Nancy Hill joined Manheim Consulting in 2006 and has over 13 years’ experience in the automotive remarketing industry. Her experience includes consulting with customers in the bank, rental, captive finance, dealer and commercial fleet segments, leading initiatives to help improve remarketing strategies. Key projects include recon ROI analysis, footprint optimization, and optimal location recommendations. Additionally, Nancy authored several studies, covering topics such as location/sale day consolidation, rental detail ROI, and understanding which vehicles have the highest success rates in online sales.

Nancy has a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Georgia and an MBA from Mercer University.



Johnradcliffemanheim


John Radcliffe
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

John Radcliffe joined Manheim Consulting in 2009 and has over 15 years of automotive industry experience. John currently helps large dealer groups become more efficient in the remarketing industry by providing custom analytics, peer benchmarking, ROI analysis, market research, and industry trends. Prior to joining Manheim, John worked for Chevy Chase Bank as a senior loan officer specializing in retail and commercial lending in the automotive industry.

John holds a Bachelor of Arts in Accounting from the University of West Florida and an MBA from Keller School of Management in Chicago.


Strategy, Research, and Analysis


Alan Massey
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Import OEM, captive finance
MBA, Georgia State; BS, University of Georgia

Brock McFaddin
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Financial institution
BA, University of Tennessee


Ally Pomeroy
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Commercial fleet, rental third-party
BA, Wittenburg University


Vikram Bhatia
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Online, Dealer Trade Network, dealer remarketing
BA, MBA University of Georgia


Jarrett Hill
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Project management, strategy, dealer remarketing
BS, MS Kennesaw State University


Jenny Brown
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Auction operations, dealer group remarketing, sales strategies
20+ years industry experience


Jason Kean
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Highline captive
16+ years industry experience


Ashiv Gupta
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Specialty, TRA, financial institutions
BS, Birla Institute of Technology; MBA, Illinois Institute of Technology