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Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2015 Used Car Market Report
View Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

February 9-11
Atlanta
CBT Expo

March 16-17
Las Vegas
CAR Conference

March 31 – April 3
Las Vegas
NADA

Manheim Consulting Blog

Helping customers accelerate their business performance

Since 2005, Manheim Consulting has conducted research and performance studies for the company’s largest dealer and commercial clients, while providing a broader perspective on the industry at large for those who follow the automotive sector. Our team leverages our industry-leading data set to illuminate new remarketing trends, optimize location or sales channel utilization, benchmark client performance against peers, publish studies on leading practices, and bring macroeconomic trends into remarketing context.

Got a question? Contact us.


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Wholesale Prices Fall in January

Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) fell in January. It was only the second decline in the past eight months, and it brought the January reading to 125.2 – virtually unchanged from a year ago.

Read more

125.2     0.1%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
January 2015

Click to Zoom

January 1995 = 100


Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

View Report

2015ucmr_252

Whitepaper-large

Impact of Delayed Titles at Auction

Roughly 35% of all vehicles at auction are sold without the physical presence of a title. When broken out by seller type, over 90% of all commercial sales are conducted with a title, while only 42.3% of dealer sales are. The seller must announce lack of title as the car runs down the lane, or on the online posting, so the buyer’s awareness of the absence may affect the sale and auction performance. This study found that conversion rate more than doubles when the physical title is present.

Read the full report


Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2015 Used Car Market Report
View Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

February 9-11
Atlanta
CBT Expo

March 16-17
Las Vegas
CAR Conference

March 31 – April 3
Las Vegas
NADA

Manheim Consulting Blog

Publications

Manheim Consulting clients have improved their remarketing performance by challenging our analytical staff. Read the conclusions of just a few of these in-depth studies.


Auto Industry Brief

Autobrief

September 2015 Auto Industry Brief
New and used unit retail volumes continued to rise, and dealers achieved greater operating efficiencies despite recalls and regulatory actions pushing costs in the opposite direction. Wholesale used vehicle pricing showed a smaller-than-normal seasonal decline, and volumes continued to grow.

August 2015 Auto Industry Brief
The auto industry is outperforming the overall economy. Wholesale used vehicle pricing remains firm, and dealer retail activity is generating strong profits as a result of increased operating efficiencies.

July 2015 Auto Industry Brief
The fundamentals of labor market and credit conditions should remain favorable to auto retailing for some time. Wholesale automotive markets continued to enjoy growing volumes and stable pricing in the second quarter. Retail markets had higher volumes on narrower margins. F&I income and greater operating efficiencies kept profits at record highs.

June 2015
New and used vehicle retail markets continue to perform solidly. On the new vehicle side, volumes are up and pricing is strong, and the used vehicle market has also seen continued growth and profitable sales.

May 2015
Either the pace of economic activity will accelerate, or we will backslide into a quagmire. The consensus forecast – continued slow, subpar growth – seems the least likely scenario. So yes, when it comes to the over / under bet, I’m going to take both.


Case Studies

Consulting

CasestudyVehicle Odor Impact on Auction Price
Many consignors struggle with the negative impact vehicle smoke or foul odor has on auction prices. Manheim Consulting quantified the auction price deterioration caused by odor noted on the condition report.

Consignors Increase Returns by Selling Ample Volume Alongside Peers
Manheim Consulting determined that consignors selling at least 20 units per sale at the same time as peers boosted returns and drew potential buyers into the lane.

Product

Manheim Enhanced Vehicle Imaging - Toyota Financial Services
One critical element of online sales is a consistent set of vehicle images that allows the buyer to effectively compare inventory selection. The images need to be the highest quality to represent the Toyota brand.

Garff Auto Group's Dealer Trade Network
Garff wanted to ensure that the right vehicles were at the right dealerships so that more vehicles were sold at retail vs. sending aged inventory straight to the wholesale environment.


Presentations

Tom-webb_smallTom Webb is a frequent speaker at automotive and economic conferences. His PowerPoint presentations enable the reader to understand the impact of macro trends on the vehicle markets. Please visit this website periodically to view Tom's latest presentations.

Future Residuals: It’s more than a matter of volume, September 29, 2015

Get in the Know on CPO, November 5, 2014

Manheim Market Report: Leveraging Analytics in Remarketing, 2012 National Remarketing Conference


White Papers

Whitepaper

Electric Vehicle Remarketing Outlook
Understanding the trends and creating the appropriate wholesale strategy is more important than ever as electric vehicles sales increase.

Increase Auction Values up to 3% by Listing “No-Sales” on OVE
See how listing "no-sale" vehicles on OVE.com can yield greater benefits than running them in-lane a second time.

Focusing Reconditioning Decisions on Vehicle Value and Pre-Recon Grade Yields Higher Returns
Which vehicles give you the best value for your reconditioning dollars?

Certification Impact on Auction Values
The case seems to indicate that one way to increase vehicle retention is to certify qualifying vehicles.

Condition Report Impact on Dealer Sales
Condition reports impact three areas of dealer sales: Simulcast reach, the ability to attract buyers, and arbitration rates.

Rental Detail ROI
Manheim Consulting determined the ROI on varying levels of detail service: no detail, wash and vac, and full detail.

Effects of Color on MMR Retention
This study examines if color impacts auction results, which is important to rental and other fleet consignors as these companies have a degree of control over their inventory.

Simulcast Bid Impact Study
Manheim Consulting examines the impacts of online bidding and the main drivers to attract online bids.

Starting Price and Floors Effect on Bids
This paper examined the most effective starting price for vehicles offered online in order to achieve the highest sales price and sales ratios.

Financial Implications of "No Sales" and Multiple Registrations
This white paper analyzes the reduction in transaction prices that results when a vehicle is a "no sale" and is registered in subsequent sales.

InSight ECR and Reconditioning
This white paper demonstrates the improvement of accuracy the Insight ECR decimal point grading system produces when measuring reconditioning returns.

Attributes of Vehicles with High Success in Online Selling
Adding an additional selling channel can increase the number of bids on a unit, driving up sales price while also lowering days to sell, and thus reducing depreciation and holding costs.

Quarterly Conference Call

Next Conference Call
Jan 8 at 11am ET

You are invited to join Tom Webb, chief economist for Manheim and the compiler of the Index, as he discusses the major economic and industry trends that have shaped the quarter. Tom will also take your questions following the presentation.

Telephone:
800-967-7154

Conf. ID:
811984

Title:
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index


For questions or to RSVP for the quarterly conference call, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Tom's presentation will be available one hour before the conference call.
View the January Presentation

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2015 Used Car Market Report
View Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

February 9-11
Atlanta
CBT Expo

March 16-17
Las Vegas
CAR Conference

March 31 – April 3
Las Vegas
NADA

Manheim Consulting Blog

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold.

The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.


Wholesale Prices Fall in January

Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) fell in January. It was only the second decline in the past eight months, and it brought the January reading to 125.2 – virtually unchanged from a year ago.

Although it has been long anticipated that wholesale values would ease in 2016 as a result of higher supply, we suspect the first downward movement of the year was more the result of past margin compression than growing wholesale volumes. Retail used vehicle gross margins were not strong in the fourth quarter of last year, so it is only logical that dealers will moderate their bidding until such time as the risk-reward ratio comes back into better alignment.

Are financial markets pointing to credit contraction? To be sure, violent swings in equity and debt markets are notorious for giving false signals of imminent doom. But the root causes of those market movements cannot be ignored. And, in this case, there’s a devil’s brew of them: global economic slowdown, aggressive Bank of Japan and European Central Bank actions, collapsing oil and other commodity prices, currency manipulation, capital controls, and large amounts of dollar-denominated debt held by countries and companies that can ill afford it.

What does any of this have to do with the availability of used vehicle loans? Quite a bit, possibly. Financial market turbulence can impact access to funds even for lenders with impeccable underwriting standards and loan portfolios that are performing extremely well. If auto loan delinquencies and loss severities rise in the first quarter, it will be viewed with concern, even if both of those ratios remain low from a historical perspective.

New and used vehicle sales: steady, but unspectacular. Rounding up to 17.6 million, the seasonally adjusted annual selling rate for new cars and light-duty trucks in January once again “beat” expectations. But this one came with more than a single note of caution. January’s sales pace is always sensitive to the seasonal adjustment factor – one which this year was further complicated by the adjustment for two fewer selling days. (Many think that even a one-day adjustment is a rather quaint notion that ignores reality and common business practices.) On a three-month moving average basis, the SAAR was 17.6 million in January, versus a high of 18.1 million in November.

In any event, one thing is clear: Adjusted or unadjusted, retail sales were down and incentive spending was up in January relative to a year ago. Total fleet purchases rose 14% in January, with sales into rental up more than 13%, commercial deliveries up 9%, and government purchases up more than 30%. Preliminary numbers suggest that total used vehicle sales were able to eke out a small gain in January (without the aid of a selling day adjustment). CPO sales in January declined 2.1%. Granted, there is no selling-day adjustment, but even if there were, the resulting increase would be small compared to the large percent gains posted in each of the last three years.

Rental risk pricing remains steady. In January, auction prices for rental risk units (adjusted for broad changes in mix and mileage) declined 0.6% from December and were down 3.3% from a year ago. Overall, however, this price series has remained in a very narrow range for more than five years.

Unadjusted prices set a new January high, based in part on a 7.6% decline in average mileage from a year ago. Auction volumes for rental risk units were down in January relative to last year.

Market class and consignor segment trends. Wholesale pricing for minivans has eased noticeably in recent months, but firm valuations for full-size cargo units kept the total van category up year-over-year in January. Pickups, both midsize and full-size, remain the strongest segment in recent months and over the past year. Within the SUV/CUV category, full-size units have far outperformed the other subcategories.

In January, compact cars remained the weakest of the major categories, with a year-over-year decline of near 9%. Luxury cars – and all of the subcategories in that segment – have also underperformed the market over the past year.

A straight average of all auction sales showed pricing up nearly 2% over the past year, and up almost 8% over the past three years. This over-performance relative to the Manheim Index reflects the movement upscale in the market class of vehicles being sold, and the shift toward more late-model, lower-mileage vehicles being offered in the wholesale market.

125.2     0.1%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
January 2016

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-linegraph0116

January 1995 = 100

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-webtable0116

January 1995 = 100



Price Changes for Selective Market Classes

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-bargraph0116

January 2016 vs. January 2015


Index Release Dates

Manheim Consulting releases the latest update of its Used Vehicle Value Index on the fifth business day of each month. To receive a monthly reminder about this update, as well as reminders for Tom Webb's quarterly conference calls, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2015 Used Car Market Report
View Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

February 9-11
Atlanta
CBT Expo

March 16-17
Las Vegas
CAR Conference

March 31 – April 3
Las Vegas
NADA

Manheim Consulting Blog

Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

View Report
2015ucmr_252

Consulting-ucmr-screenshot

Past Used Car Market Reports

2014 Used Car Market Report View
2013 Used Car Market Report View
2012 Used Car Market Report View
2011 Mid-Year Used Car Market Report View
2011 Used Car Market Report View
2010 Used Car Market Report View

Where to Find Us

February 9-11
Atlanta
CBT Expo

March 16-17
Las Vegas
CAR Conference

March 31 – April 3
Las Vegas
NADA

Services

Manheim Consulting: Your Partner for Remarketing Services

Manheim Consulting is dedicated to helping our Commercial and Dealer customer improve their remarketing performance. Our team accesses the extensive database represented by the more than 10 million vehicles posted annually online or run in Manheim auction lanes. We apply data mining, targeted research, competitive benchmarking, and quantitative analyses to provide our clients with unbiased reporting and strategic advice.


Powered by Professionals

Manheim Consulting is built on the knowledge and experience of its team of consultants. Over the years, Manheim Consulting has established itself as a trusted advisor to the automotive industry. Professionals from a diverse set of backgrounds help develop a perspective that is truly unparalleled in the industry.

Got a question? Contact us.


Our Team



Tomwebb


Tom Webb
Chief Economist

Tom Webb joined Manheim as chief economist in 2001, bringing to the position his unique understanding of the automotive retail and wholesale industries. As the chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association for 26 years, Tom was already recognized for his authoritative research and commentary on economic trends and their impact on vehicle demand. At Manheim, Tom continues in his role as commentator on the economy and vehicle markets and is a frequent guest at Manheim client and automotive events, in the media and as a contributor to automotive and remarketing publications.

Tom has a degree in Economics from the University of Wyoming and did graduate work in Economics at Georgetown University.


Nancyhillmanheim


Nancy Hill
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

Nancy Hill joined Manheim Consulting in 2006 and has over 13 years’ experience in the automotive remarketing industry. Her experience includes consulting with customers in the bank, rental, captive finance, dealer and commercial fleet segments, leading initiatives to help improve remarketing strategies. Key projects include recon ROI analysis, footprint optimization, and optimal location recommendations. Additionally, Nancy authored several studies, covering topics such as location/sale day consolidation, rental detail ROI, and understanding which vehicles have the highest success rates in online sales.

Nancy has a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Georgia and an MBA from Mercer University.



Johnradcliffemanheim


John Radcliffe
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

John Radcliffe joined Manheim Consulting in 2009 and has over 15 years of automotive industry experience. John currently helps large dealer groups become more efficient in the remarketing industry by providing custom analytics, peer benchmarking, ROI analysis, market research, and industry trends. Prior to joining Manheim, John worked for Chevy Chase Bank as a senior loan officer specializing in retail and commercial lending in the automotive industry.

John holds a Bachelor of Arts in Accounting from the University of West Florida and an MBA from Keller School of Management in Chicago.


Strategy, Research, and Analysis


Chris Frey
Manager, Customer Consulting
BS, Georgia Institute of Technology
MA, Economics. Georgia State University

Brock McFaddin
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Financial institution
BA, University of Tennessee


Gerald Meano
Manager, Customer Consulting
BS, Business, Concentration in E-Business, University of Phoenix


Vikram Bhatia
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Online, Dealer Trade Network, dealer remarketing
BA, MBA University of Georgia


Jenny Brown
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Auction operations, dealer group remarketing, sales strategies
20+ years industry experience


Ashiv Gupta
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Specialty, TRA, financial institutions
BS, Birla Institute of Technology; MBA, Illinois Institute of Technology


Allison Downey
Customer Consultant
Specialties: Dealer remarketing
BA, University of Georgia; MA, University of Chicago


Beverly Evans
Customer Consultant
BBA, University of Georgia