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Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 18 - 19
Las Vegas
Car Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Helping customers accelerate their business performance

Since 2005, Manheim Consulting has conducted research and performance studies for the company’s largest dealer and commercial clients, while providing a broader perspective on the industry at large for those who follow the automotive sector. Our team leverages our industry-leading data set to illuminate new remarketing trends, optimize location or sales channel utilization, benchmark client performance against peers, publish studies on leading practices, and bring macroeconomic trends into remarketing context.

Got a question? Contact us.


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Wholesale Prices Rise Again in November

After ticking up in October, wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) showed a more sizable gain in November. This pushed the November Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to a reading of 123.3, which represented an increase of 0.7% from a year ago.

Wholesale price movements since April suggest that, if there was a price misalignment between new and used vehicles, it was modest at best. The five-month decline in pricing lowered wholesale values by less than 3%, and the subsequent two-month rise has brought prices within 1.3% of their April high. Recent wholesale pricing also suggests that the low- to mid-16 million new vehicle SAAR in September and October did not create the level, or age/model/condition mix, of trade-ins and lease turn-ins that dealers needed for today’s robust used vehicle market. The dealer’s mood in November was one of active acquisition at auction.

Read more

123.3     0.7%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
November 2014

Click to Zoom

January 1995 = 100


Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

Order Now

2014ucmr

Whitepaper-large

Impact of Delayed Titles at Auction

Roughly 35% of all vehicles at auction are sold without the physical presence of a title. When broken out by seller type, over 90% of all commercial sales are conducted with a title, while only 42.3% of dealer sales are. The seller must announce lack of title as the car runs down the lane, or on the online posting, so the buyer’s awareness of the absence may affect the sale and auction performance. This study found that conversion rate more than doubles when the physical title is present.

Read the full report


Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 18 - 19
Las Vegas
Car Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Publications

Manheim Consulting clients have improved their remarketing performance by challenging our analytical staff. Read the conclusions of just a few of these in-depth studies.


Auto Industry Brief

AutobriefAugust 2014 Auto Industry Brief
The U.S. economy is a duck in the water. Appearances suggest it is moving slowly and serenely toward a planned destination. Reality is that it's paddling furiously and will drift aimlessly once tired. Meanwhile, the snapping turtles of geopolitical threats multiply. Any one of them is more than capable of pulling the duck under in a heartbeat.

June 2014
It's time to "roll out those lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer." And they will indeed be lazy (continued subpar economic growth), hazy (no definitive directional turns), and crazy (think "not normal" as opposed to "new normal").

May 2014
When data for first-quarter GDP are revised, there's a strong likelihood that the economy will have contracted.

April 2014
First-quarter earnings reports suggest the economy might be setting up for acceleration in the months ahead.


Case Studies

CasestudyVehicle Odor Impact on Auction Price
Many consignors struggle with the negative impact vehicle smoke or foul odor has on auction prices. Manheim Consulting quantified the auction price deterioration caused by odor noted on the condition report.

Consignors Increase Returns by Selling Ample Volume Alongside Peers
Manheim Consulting determined that consignors selling at least 20 units per sale at the same time as peers boosted returns and drew potential buyers into the lane.


Presentations

Tom-webb_smallTom Webb is a frequent speaker at automotive and economic conferences. His PowerPoint presentations enable the reader to understand the impact of macro trends on the vehicle markets. Please visit this website periodically to view Tom's latest presentations.

Get in the Know on CPO, November 5, 2014

Residual Risks Residing in the Recesses of the “Recovery”, September 17, 2013

Manheim Market Report: Leveraging Analytics in Remarketing, 2012 National Remarketing Conference


White Papers

WhitepaperImpact of Delayed Titles at Auction
Conversion rate more than doubles when the physical title is present.



Certification Impact on Auction Values
The case seems to indicate that one way to increase vehicle retention is to certify qualifying vehicles.

Condition Report Impact on Dealer Sales
Condition reports impact three areas of dealer sales: Simulcast reach, the ability to attract buyers, and arbitration rates.

Rental Detail ROI
Manheim Consulting determined the ROI on varying levels of detail service: no detail, wash and vac, and full detail.

Effects of Color on MMR Retention
This study examines if color impacts auction results, which is important to rental and other fleet consignors as these companies have a degree of control over their inventory.

Simulcast Bid Impact Study
Manheim Consulting examines the impacts of online bidding and the main drivers to attract online bids.

Starting Price and Floors Effect on Bids
This paper examined the most effective starting price for vehicles offered online in order to achieve the highest sales price and sales ratios.

Financial Implications of "No Sales" and Multiple Registrations
This white paper analyzes the reduction in transaction prices that results when a vehicle is a "no sale" and is registered in subsequent sales.

InSight ECR and Reconditioning
This white paper demonstrates the improvement of accuracy the Insight ECR decimal point grading system produces when measuring reconditioning returns.

Attributes of Vehicles with High Success in Online Selling
Adding an additional selling channel can increase the number of bids on a unit, driving up sales price while also lowering days to sell, and thus reducing depreciation and holding costs.

Quarterly Conference Call

Next Conference Call
Jan 8

You are invited to join Tom Webb, chief economist for Manheim and the compiler of the Index, as he discusses the major economic and industry trends that have shaped the quarter. Tom will also take your questions following the presentation.

Telephone: 877-440-5807

Conf. ID: 5607880

For questions or to RSVP for the quarterly conference call, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Tom's presentation will be available one hour before the conference call.
View the October Presentation

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 18 - 19
Las Vegas
Car Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold.

The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.


Wholesale Prices Rise Again in November

After ticking up in October, wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) showed a more sizable gain in November. This pushed the November Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to a reading of 123.3, which represented an increase of 0.7% from a year ago.

Wholesale price movements since April suggest that, if there was a price misalignment between new and used vehicles, it was modest at best. The five-month decline in pricing lowered wholesale values by less than 3%, and the subsequent two-month rise has brought prices within 1.3% of their April high. Recent wholesale pricing also suggests that the low- to mid-16 million new vehicle SAAR in September and October did not create the level, or age/model/condition mix, of trade-ins and lease turn-ins that dealers needed for today’s robust used vehicle market. The dealer’s mood in November was one of active acquisition at auction.

New vehicle sales: Monthly SAAR tops 17 million. New cars and light duty trucks sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.1 million in November. That pace might have been artificially boosted by the selling day adjustment and higher fleet sales, but still it was a solid report. The average new vehicle transaction price rose to $33,754 in November, up 1.7% from a year ago, according to Kelley Blue Book.

Maintaining that pricing strength over the course of the coming year may prove challenging. Clearly, the expected plateauing in new vehicle sales, the significant weakening of the yen, and the large amount of dry powder that manufacturers have to raise incentives could lead to aggressive pricing next year. And don’t forget the usual year-end step-up in promotions that will occur this month.

Used vehicles: Steady and strong profits. Used vehicle retail sales by dealers ticked up by less than 1% in November, after declining in October, according to CNW. And, although year-to-date used vehicle sales by dealers are down 1.1%, all indications are that profits are being generated at record levels.

Growing lease turn-ins, as well as newer trade-ins, have significantly raised the average used vehicle selling price at franchised dealers. Relatedly, another strong month of CPO sales in November pushed the year-to-date tally to 2.14 million, an increase of 10.2% from the year-ago period.

Rental risk: A bounceback in pricing. Average auction prices for rental risk units (both adjusted and unadjusted for mileage and mix shifts) moved up in November relative to October, but were still down year-over-year. In hindsight, we can now see that October’s sharp downward movement was exaggerated by heavy volumes and a greater share of below-average condition vehicles. November’s auction volume of rental risk units was up significantly from a year ago; but due to the normal large seasonal reduction, November was still the lowest-volume month of the year. Average mileage crossed the 45,000-mile threshold for the first time ever.

Market segment and price tier trends. Luxury vehicles continued to outperform the overall market in November; but due to weakness earlier in the year, they still have a lot ground to make up. Maintaining luxury car residuals in the months ahead will be important due to the current, and upcoming, seasonal rise in lease returns in this segment. Pricing in the compact car market remained competitive in both the new and used vehicle markets.

Our analysis of changes in mileage by price tier suggests that vehicles in the $8,000 to $10,000 price range are showing the weakest demand, whereas vehicles in the $13,000 to $15,000 range are enjoying the strongest relative pricing.

Dealer-consigned units at auction had a 1% increase in average selling price despite a 2% rise in average mileage.

123.3     0.7%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
November 2014

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-linegraph1114

January 1995 = 100

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-webtable1114

January 1995 = 100



Price Changes for Selective Market Classes

Click to Zoom
Pricechangesforselectivemarket-bargraph1114

November 2014 vs. November 2013


Index Release Dates

Manheim Consulting releases the latest update of its Used Vehicle Value Index on the fifth business day of each month. To receive a monthly reminder about this update, as well as reminders for Tom Webb's quarterly conference calls, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 18 - 19
Las Vegas
Car Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

View Report
2014ucmr

Consulting-ucmr-screenshot

Past Used Car Market Reports

2013 Used Car Market Report View
2012 Used Car Market Report View
2011 Mid-Year Used Car Market Report View
2011 Used Car Market Report View
2010 Used Car Market Report View
2009 Used Car Market Report View
2008 Used Car Market Report View
2007 Used Car Market Report View
2006 Used Car Market Report View

Where to Find Us

March 18 - 19
Las Vegas
Car Conference

Services

Manheim Consulting: Your Partner for Remarketing Services

Manheim Consulting is dedicated to helping our Commercial and Dealer customer improve their remarketing performance. Our team accesses the extensive database represented by the more than 10 million vehicles posted annually online or run in Manheim auction lanes. We apply data mining, targeted research, competitive benchmarking, and quantitative analyses to provide our clients with unbiased reporting and strategic advice.


Powered by Professionals

Manheim Consulting is built on the knowledge and experience of its team of consultants. Over the years, Manheim Consulting has established itself as a trusted advisor to the automotive industry. Professionals from a diverse set of backgrounds help develop a perspective that is truly unparalleled in the industry.

Got a question? Contact us.


Our Team



Tomwebb


Tom Webb
Chief Economist

Tom Webb joined Manheim as chief economist in 2001, bringing to the position his unique understanding of the automotive retail and wholesale industries. As the chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association for 26 years, Tom was already recognized for his authoritative research and commentary on economic trends and their impact on vehicle demand. At Manheim, Tom continues in his role as commentator on the economy and vehicle markets and is a frequent guest at Manheim client and automotive events, in the media and as a contributor to automotive and remarketing publications.

Tom has a degree in Economics from the University of Wyoming and did graduate work in Economics at Georgetown University.


Nancyhillmanheim


Nancy Hill
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

Nancy Hill joined Manheim Consulting in 2006 and has over 13 years’ experience in the automotive remarketing industry. Her experience includes consulting with customers in the bank, rental, captive finance, dealer and commercial fleet segments, leading initiatives to help improve remarketing strategies. Key projects include recon ROI analysis, footprint optimization, and optimal location recommendations. Additionally, Nancy authored several studies, covering topics such as location/sale day consolidation, rental detail ROI, and understanding which vehicles have the highest success rates in online sales.

Nancy has a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Georgia and an MBA from Mercer University.



Johnradcliffemanheim


John Radcliffe
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

John Radcliffe joined Manheim Consulting in 2009 and has over 15 years of automotive industry experience. John currently helps large dealer groups become more efficient in the remarketing industry by providing custom analytics, peer benchmarking, ROI analysis, market research, and industry trends. Prior to joining Manheim, John worked for Chevy Chase Bank as a senior loan officer specializing in retail and commercial lending in the automotive industry.

John holds a Bachelor of Arts in Accounting from the University of West Florida and an MBA from Keller School of Management in Chicago.


Strategy, Research, and Analysis


Alan Massey
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Import OEM, captive finance
MBA, Georgia State; BS, University of Georgia

Brock McFaddin
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Financial institution
BA, University of Tennessee


Ally Pomeroy
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Commercial fleet, rental third-party
BA, Wittenburg University


Vikram Bhatia
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Online, Dealer Trade Network, dealer remarketing
BA, MBA University of Georgia


Jarrett Hill
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Project management, strategy, dealer remarketing
BS, MS Kennesaw State University


Jenny Brown
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Auction operations, dealer group remarketing, sales strategies
20+ years industry experience


Jason Kean
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Highline captive
16+ years industry experience


Ashiv Gupta
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Specialty, TRA, financial institutions
BS, Birla Institute of Technology; MBA, Illinois Institute of Technology