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Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2015 Used Car Market Report
View Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

Manheim Consulting Blog

Helping customers accelerate their business performance

Since 2005, Manheim Consulting has conducted research and performance studies for the company’s largest dealer and commercial clients, while providing a broader perspective on the industry at large for those who follow the automotive sector. Our team leverages our industry-leading data set to illuminate new remarketing trends, optimize location or sales channel utilization, benchmark client performance against peers, publish studies on leading practices, and bring macroeconomic trends into remarketing context.

Got a question? Contact us.


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Wholesale Prices Decline Again in May

The current Manheim Index reading is close to its historic trend line, whether that line is based on raw data or adjusted for changes in new vehicle prices. With wholesale supplies certain to grow (indeed, accelerate), a movement below trend should be anticipated. The degree of deviation will be dependent on the ability of basic economic forces – labor market and credit conditions – to continue to support retail used unit volumes and profits.

Read more

123.8     0.7%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
May 2015

Click to Zoom

January 1995 = 100


Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

View Report

2015ucmr_252

Whitepaper-large

Impact of Delayed Titles at Auction

Roughly 35% of all vehicles at auction are sold without the physical presence of a title. When broken out by seller type, over 90% of all commercial sales are conducted with a title, while only 42.3% of dealer sales are. The seller must announce lack of title as the car runs down the lane, or on the online posting, so the buyer’s awareness of the absence may affect the sale and auction performance. This study found that conversion rate more than doubles when the physical title is present.

Read the full report


Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2015 Used Car Market Report
View Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

Manheim Consulting Blog

Publications

Manheim Consulting clients have improved their remarketing performance by challenging our analytical staff. Read the conclusions of just a few of these in-depth studies.


Auto Industry Brief

AutobriefJune 2015 Auto Industry Brief
New and used vehicle retail markets continue to perform solidly. On the new vehicle side, volumes are up and pricing is strong, and the used vehicle market has also seen continued growth and profitable sales.

May 2015
Either the pace of economic activity will accelerate, or we will backslide into a quagmire. The consensus forecast – continued slow, subpar growth – seems the least likely scenario. So yes, when it comes to the over / under bet, I’m going to take both.

March 2015
[W]e find our economic outlook scarily close to the consensus view, but believe there is an unhealthy disregard for the downside risks.

February 2015
Simple momentum should be enough to keep the economic backdrop favorable in the near term.

January 2015
After five years of mediocre growth, the champagne cork was popped when employment gains last year came in just shy of 3 million (the fastest pace since 1999) and pump prices dropped below $2 per gallon in most states.


Case Studies

Consulting

CasestudyVehicle Odor Impact on Auction Price
Many consignors struggle with the negative impact vehicle smoke or foul odor has on auction prices. Manheim Consulting quantified the auction price deterioration caused by odor noted on the condition report.

Consignors Increase Returns by Selling Ample Volume Alongside Peers
Manheim Consulting determined that consignors selling at least 20 units per sale at the same time as peers boosted returns and drew potential buyers into the lane.

Product

Manheim Enhanced Vehicle Imaging - Toyota Financial Services
One critical element of online sales is a consistent set of vehicle images that allows the buyer to effectively compare inventory selection. The images need to be the highest quality to represent the Toyota brand.

Garff Auto Group's Dealer Trade Network
Garff wanted to ensure that the right vehicles were at the right dealerships so that more vehicles were sold at retail vs. sending aged inventory straight to the wholesale environment.


Presentations

Tom-webb_smallTom Webb is a frequent speaker at automotive and economic conferences. His PowerPoint presentations enable the reader to understand the impact of macro trends on the vehicle markets. Please visit this website periodically to view Tom's latest presentations.

Get in the Know on CPO, November 5, 2014

Residual Risks Residing in the Recesses of the “Recovery”, September 17, 2013

Manheim Market Report: Leveraging Analytics in Remarketing, 2012 National Remarketing Conference


White Papers

WhitepaperFocusing Reconditioning Decisions on Vehicle Value and Pre-Recon Grade Yields Higher Returns
Which vehicles give you the best value for your reconditioning dollars?

Impact of Delayed Titles at Auction
Conversion rate more than doubles when the physical title is present.

Certification Impact on Auction Values
The case seems to indicate that one way to increase vehicle retention is to certify qualifying vehicles.

Condition Report Impact on Dealer Sales
Condition reports impact three areas of dealer sales: Simulcast reach, the ability to attract buyers, and arbitration rates.

Rental Detail ROI
Manheim Consulting determined the ROI on varying levels of detail service: no detail, wash and vac, and full detail.

Effects of Color on MMR Retention
This study examines if color impacts auction results, which is important to rental and other fleet consignors as these companies have a degree of control over their inventory.

Simulcast Bid Impact Study
Manheim Consulting examines the impacts of online bidding and the main drivers to attract online bids.

Starting Price and Floors Effect on Bids
This paper examined the most effective starting price for vehicles offered online in order to achieve the highest sales price and sales ratios.

Financial Implications of "No Sales" and Multiple Registrations
This white paper analyzes the reduction in transaction prices that results when a vehicle is a "no sale" and is registered in subsequent sales.

InSight ECR and Reconditioning
This white paper demonstrates the improvement of accuracy the Insight ECR decimal point grading system produces when measuring reconditioning returns.

Attributes of Vehicles with High Success in Online Selling
Adding an additional selling channel can increase the number of bids on a unit, driving up sales price while also lowering days to sell, and thus reducing depreciation and holding costs.

Quarterly Conference Call

Next Conference Call
Jul 8 at 11am ET

You are invited to join Tom Webb, chief economist for Manheim and the compiler of the Index, as he discusses the major economic and industry trends that have shaped the quarter. Tom will also take your questions following the presentation.

Telephone:
866-431-5314

Conf. ID:
990682

For questions or to RSVP for the quarterly conference call, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Tom's presentation will be available one hour before the conference call.
View the April Presentation

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2015 Used Car Market Report
View Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

Manheim Consulting Blog

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold.

The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.


Wholesale Prices Decline Again in May

Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) declined for the fourth consecutive month in May. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to a reading of 123.8 in May, which represented a decline of 0.7% from a year ago.

A look at the Manheim Index over its entire 20-plus year history shows that pricing over the past five years has been not only elevated, but stable. Sure, there have been intra-year swings; but over the longer time span, the movements have been modest. Indeed, even with the recent declines in wholesale pricing, the Index is only 3.1% lower than the peak reached in May 2011 – and that was a peak that was artificially boosted by the supply disruption resulting from Japan’s earthquake.

The current Manheim Index reading is also close to its historic trend line, whether that line is based on raw data or adjusted for changes in new vehicle prices. With wholesale supplies certain to grow (indeed, accelerate), a movement below trend should be anticipated. The degree of deviation will be dependent on the ability of basic economic forces – labor market and credit conditions – to continue to support retail used unit volumes and profits.

Consumers buy vehicles, but not much else. New cars and light-duty trucks sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.7 million in May. This was far above expectations, and it was the best pace in nearly a decade. Three calendar quirks boosted the sales rate: 1) five weekends during the month, 2) Memorial Day’s coming early, and 3) the quaint notion of adjusting for one less “selling” day. Expect a June pullback (the selling-day adjustment will go the other way). Nevertheless, new vehicle sales are strong (the year-to-date pace is 16.8 million), especially given that consumer spending on other items has been weak all year as households increase their savings rate.

With respect to supporting used vehicle values, it is encouraging that new vehicle transaction prices continue to rise, incentive spending is flat, and inventory levels are normal. Wholesale used vehicle prices, as measured by the Manheim Index, are now approximately at their historical trend level with respect to new vehicle prices as measured by the government.

Used vehicle retail market remains solid. Total used vehicle retail sales rose 5% in April, after being down in the first quarter, according to NADA. Conversations with dealers suggest that the turnaround continued in May. For certain, CPO sales continued their record pace, with sales up 12.2% in May and 11.6% year-to-date. With dealers’ increasing operating efficiencies, the higher throughput has produced record profits.

Rental risk: Older, rougher vehicles drag down price. A straight average of auction prices for rental risk units sold in May was down more than 10% from the year-ago level. After adjusting for broad shifts in market class and mileage, the year-over-year decline was still over 6%. Much of the remaining decline was a result of older and rougher-condition vehicles being sold. For example, in May 2014, 65% of the rental risk units sold were from the 2013 model year; but in May 2015, only 29% of sales were accounted for by 2014 model year vehicles (57% of sales continued to be accounted for by 2013 model year units). Likewise, in May 2014, 45% of the risk units sold at auction had a condition grade of 4.0 or better. In May 2015, only 30% did.

Auction volumes for rental risk units were up significantly in May and for the first five months of the year. Meanwhile, the number of new units sold into rental rose less than 1% in May, but was up 9.4% year-to-date.

Market segment and price tier trends. May represented a continuation of trend with respect to pricing movements within market classes. Namely, compact cars were weak, and pickups were strong. Luxury cars also continued to underperform the overall market, and within that segment, entry luxury cars were under the greatest price pressure.

Within the pricing tiers, there was weakness in the $9,000 to $11,000 range and strength in everything above $15,000. This also represented a trend that has been going on for some time. The volume of vehicles offered in the $9,000 to $11,000 range was up considerably from a year ago.

Pricing for dealer-consigned units in May was higher than a year ago, and average mileage declined ever so slightly during the month after rising for many years.

123.8     0.7%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
May 2015

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-linegraph0515

January 1995 = 100

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-webtable0515

January 1995 = 100



Price Changes for Selective Market Classes

Click to Zoom
Pricechangesforselectivemarket-bargraph0515

May 2015 vs. May 2014


Index Release Dates

Manheim Consulting releases the latest update of its Used Vehicle Value Index on the fifth business day of each month. To receive a monthly reminder about this update, as well as reminders for Tom Webb's quarterly conference calls, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2015 Used Car Market Report
View Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

Manheim Consulting Blog

Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

View Report
2015ucmr_252

Consulting-ucmr-screenshot

Past Used Car Market Reports

2014 Used Car Market Report View
2013 Used Car Market Report View
2012 Used Car Market Report View
2011 Mid-Year Used Car Market Report View
2011 Used Car Market Report View
2010 Used Car Market Report View
2009 Used Car Market Report View
2008 Used Car Market Report View
2007 Used Car Market Report View
2006 Used Car Market Report View

Where to Find Us

Services

Manheim Consulting: Your Partner for Remarketing Services

Manheim Consulting is dedicated to helping our Commercial and Dealer customer improve their remarketing performance. Our team accesses the extensive database represented by the more than 10 million vehicles posted annually online or run in Manheim auction lanes. We apply data mining, targeted research, competitive benchmarking, and quantitative analyses to provide our clients with unbiased reporting and strategic advice.


Powered by Professionals

Manheim Consulting is built on the knowledge and experience of its team of consultants. Over the years, Manheim Consulting has established itself as a trusted advisor to the automotive industry. Professionals from a diverse set of backgrounds help develop a perspective that is truly unparalleled in the industry.

Got a question? Contact us.


Our Team



Tomwebb


Tom Webb
Chief Economist

Tom Webb joined Manheim as chief economist in 2001, bringing to the position his unique understanding of the automotive retail and wholesale industries. As the chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association for 26 years, Tom was already recognized for his authoritative research and commentary on economic trends and their impact on vehicle demand. At Manheim, Tom continues in his role as commentator on the economy and vehicle markets and is a frequent guest at Manheim client and automotive events, in the media and as a contributor to automotive and remarketing publications.

Tom has a degree in Economics from the University of Wyoming and did graduate work in Economics at Georgetown University.


Nancyhillmanheim


Nancy Hill
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

Nancy Hill joined Manheim Consulting in 2006 and has over 13 years’ experience in the automotive remarketing industry. Her experience includes consulting with customers in the bank, rental, captive finance, dealer and commercial fleet segments, leading initiatives to help improve remarketing strategies. Key projects include recon ROI analysis, footprint optimization, and optimal location recommendations. Additionally, Nancy authored several studies, covering topics such as location/sale day consolidation, rental detail ROI, and understanding which vehicles have the highest success rates in online sales.

Nancy has a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Georgia and an MBA from Mercer University.



Johnradcliffemanheim


John Radcliffe
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

John Radcliffe joined Manheim Consulting in 2009 and has over 15 years of automotive industry experience. John currently helps large dealer groups become more efficient in the remarketing industry by providing custom analytics, peer benchmarking, ROI analysis, market research, and industry trends. Prior to joining Manheim, John worked for Chevy Chase Bank as a senior loan officer specializing in retail and commercial lending in the automotive industry.

John holds a Bachelor of Arts in Accounting from the University of West Florida and an MBA from Keller School of Management in Chicago.


Strategy, Research, and Analysis


Alan Massey
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Import OEM, captive finance
MBA, Georgia State; BS, University of Georgia

Brock McFaddin
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Financial institution
BA, University of Tennessee


Ally Pomeroy
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Commercial fleet, rental third-party
BA, Wittenburg University


Vikram Bhatia
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Online, Dealer Trade Network, dealer remarketing
BA, MBA University of Georgia


Jenny Brown
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Auction operations, dealer group remarketing, sales strategies
20+ years industry experience


Ashiv Gupta
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Specialty, TRA, financial institutions
BS, Birla Institute of Technology; MBA, Illinois Institute of Technology


Allison Downey
Customer Consultant
Specialties: Dealer remarketing
BA, University of Georgia; MA, University of Chicago