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Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Helping customers accelerate their business performance

Since 2005, Manheim Consulting has conducted research and performance studies for the company’s largest dealer and commercial clients, while providing a broader perspective on the industry at large for those who follow the automotive sector. Our team leverages our industry-leading data set to illuminate new remarketing trends, optimize location or sales channel utilization, benchmark client performance against peers, publish studies on leading practices, and bring macroeconomic trends into remarketing context.

Got a question? Contact us.


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Wholesale Prices Decline in June

The strength in wholesale pricing reflects strong retail demand. And that strong retail demand has been driven, in large part, by extremely favorable retail credit conditions. Even though those favorable conditions are expected to continue, a leveling off in the rate of increase in retail demand should be expected. Meanwhile, the growth in wholesale supply will accelerate. That will inevitably put downward pressure on residual values, but the decline should be modest and not disruptive to the efficient functioning of the wholesale market.

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124.0     3.6%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
June 2014

Click to Zoom

January 1995 = 100


Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

Order Now

2014ucmr

Whitepaper-large

Impact of Delayed Titles at Auction

Roughly 35% of all vehicles at auction are sold without the physical presence of a title. When broken out by seller type, over 90% of all commercial sales are conducted with a title, while only 42.3% of dealer sales are. The seller must announce lack of title as the car runs down the lane, or on the online posting, so the buyer’s awareness of the absence may affect the sale and auction performance. This study found that conversion rate more than doubles when the physical title is present.

Read the full report


Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Publications

Manheim Consulting clients have improved their remarketing performance by challenging our analytical staff. Read the conclusions of just a few of these in-depth studies.


Auto Industry Brief

AutobriefMay 2014 Auto Industry Brief
When data for first-quarter GDP are revised, there's a strong likelihood that the economy will have contracted. And when second-quarter GDP is released, it will likely show one of the fastest paces of growth in the five-year recovery.

April 2014
First-quarter earnings reports suggest the economy might be setting up for acceleration in the months ahead.

March 2014
We're optimistic that the recovery can continue apace, but would be skeptical about any sign that promises a meaningful quickening in the rate of growth.


Case Studies

CasestudyVehicle Odor Impact on Auction Price
Many consignors struggle with the negative impact vehicle smoke or foul odor has on auction prices. Manheim Consulting quantified the auction price deterioration caused by odor noted on the condition report.

Consignors Increase Returns by Selling Ample Volume Alongside Peers
Manheim Consulting determined that consignors selling at least 20 units per sale at the same time as peers boosted returns and drew potential buyers into the lane.


Presentations

Tom-webb_smallTom Webb is a frequent speaker at automotive and economic conferences. His PowerPoint presentations enable the reader to understand the impact of macro trends on the vehicle markets. Please visit this website periodically to view Tom's latest presentations.

Residual Risks Residing in the Recesses of the “Recovery”, September 17, 2013

Manheim Market Report: Leveraging Analytics in Remarketing, 2012 National Remarketing Conference


White Papers

WhitepaperImpact of Delayed Titles at Auction
Conversion rate more than doubles when the physical title is present.



Certification Impact on Auction Values
The case seems to indicate that one way to increase vehicle retention is to certify qualifying vehicles.

Condition Report Impact on Dealer Sales
Condition reports impact three areas of dealer sales: Simulcast reach, the ability to attract buyers, and arbitration rates.

Rental Detail ROI
Manheim Consulting determined the ROI on varying levels of detail service: no detail, wash and vac, and full detail.

Effects of Color on MMR Retention
This study examines if color impacts auction results, which is important to rental and other fleet consignors as these companies have a degree of control over their inventory.

Simulcast Bid Impact Study
Manheim Consulting examines the impacts of online bidding and the main drivers to attract online bids.

Starting Price and Floors Effect on Bids
This paper examined the most effective starting price for vehicles offered online in order to achieve the highest sales price and sales ratios.

Financial Implications of "No Sales" and Multiple Registrations
This white paper analyzes the reduction in transaction prices that results when a vehicle is a "no sale" and is registered in subsequent sales.

InSight ECR and Reconditioning
This white paper demonstrates the improvement of accuracy the Insight ECR decimal point grading system produces when measuring reconditioning returns.

Attributes of Vehicles with High Success in Online Selling
Adding an additional selling channel can increase the number of bids on a unit, driving up sales price while also lowering days to sell, and thus reducing depreciation and holding costs.

Quarterly Conference Call

Next Conference Call
July 8, 11am ET

You are invited to join Tom Webb, Manheim's chief economist and the compiler of the Index, as he discusses the major economic and industry trends that have shaped the quarter. Tom will also take your questions following the presentation.

Telephone:

Conf. ID:

Title:

888-695-0608

9217363

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

For questions or to RSVP for the quarterly conference call, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Tom's presentation will be available one hour before the conference call.
View the July Presentation

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold.

The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.


Wholesale Prices Decline in June

Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) fell 0.6% in June after declining 0.2% in May. Nevertheless, on a quarterly average basis, the second quarter was still 1% higher than the first quarter. And, on a year-over-year basis, the June Manheim Index was up 3.6%.

The strength in wholesale pricing reflects strong retail demand. And that strong retail demand has been driven, in large part, by extremely favorable retail credit conditions. Even though those favorable conditions are expected to continue, a leveling off in the rate of increase in retail demand should be expected. Meanwhile, the growth in wholesale supply will accelerate. That will inevitably put downward pressure on residual values, but the decline should be modest and not disruptive to the efficient functioning of the wholesale market.

June new vehicle sales: Another surprise to the upside. When new cars and light-duty trucks sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.7 million in May, it was an upward surprise that was explained partly by five weekends in the month and the Memorial Day pull-ahead of some June sales. But then, the June sales pace came in even stronger, at just under 17 million. Again, there were a couple of technical factors. First, there is the quaint notion of adjusting for “selling days.” There were 24 selling days this June and 26 last June, but the loss of two selling days should not be equated to an assumed 8% loss in sales. Dealers budget and pay bonuses based on the month, not selling days.

Second, the new vehicle SAAR in May and June was boosted by higher sales into rental. Rental car purchases for the May and June period were the highest since 2006. This was needed to make up for low deliveries in the first four months of the year. So, even though sales into rental for the first half of the year were basically flat (-0.8%), they did alter monthly swings in the SAAR.

The encouraging news is that average new transaction prices continue to rise and incentive spending remains restrained. To be sure, one could argue that the retail financing environment of “longer loans, lower down payments, and lower FICOs” represents a stealth incentive. But, as noted last month, really it’s an incentive only if the loan goes sour. And it hurts residual values only if consumers use the attractive financing to switch from a used vehicle purchase to new one. Currently, loan delinquencies are at record low levels, and consumers are often using the longer loans to buy “more car.” Hence the rise in average new vehicle transaction prices.

Dealer used vehicle sales show broad-based rise. In the first half of 2014, dealers in all segments of the used vehicle market have prospered. Low-end segments of the market have benefited from the increased availability of subprime financing. And although Buy-Here, Pay-Here dealers have had to compete against deep subprime lenders’ buying even deeper, they were able to tweak their business model and remain a viable and valuable part of the used vehicle market ecosystem.

Record CPO sales attest to the strength of late-model used vehicles. Although CPO sales dipped slightly in June, sales during the first half of 2014 were up over 8% from last year’s record pace. Likewise, CarMax had a strong performance for its fiscal quarter ending May 31. And we expect the other publicly traded dealership groups to show good quarterly results when they report later this month.

Rental risk units: Prices ease, as volumes improve. Auction prices for rental risk units (adjusted for mileage and mix shifts) have eased in each of the last three months and are now up only 1% from their year-ago level. The volume sold, after being down significantly in the first five months of the year, improved in June relative to a year ago. The average mileage on rental risk units sold at auction moved back above 40,000 miles in June.

Market class and price tier trends. During the past year – and for June alone – pickups have been the strongest price performers and luxury cars the weakest. For luxury vehicles it is a matter of high wholesale supplies and price point that is susceptible to pressure from new vehicle deals. Compact cars, which have underperformed in the overall market in recent months, improved relative to other segments in June.

An analysis of average mileage by price tiers indicates the sweet spot in the wholesale market continues to move up in price. In June, the strongest pricing (and lowest relative supply) was in the $12,000 to $15,000 price range. In 2013 and early 2014, the strongest pricing was often found in the $8,000 to $10,000 price range. Pricing has suffered recently in the over $20,000 category due to growing supplies.

124.0     3.6%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
June 2014

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-linegraph0614

January 1995 = 100

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-webtable0614

January 1995 = 100



Price Changes for Selective Market Classes

Click to Zoom
Pricechangesforselectivemarket-bargraph0614

June 2014 vs. June 2013


Index Release Dates

Manheim Consulting releases the latest update of its Used Vehicle Value Index on the fifth business day of each month. To receive a monthly reminder about this update, as well as reminders for Tom Webb's quarterly conference calls, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

Order Now
2014ucmr

Consulting-ucmr-screenshot

Past Used Car Market Reports

2013 Used Car Market Report Order Now
2012 Used Car Market Report View
2011 Mid-Year Used Car Market Report View
2011 Used Car Market Report View
2010 Used Car Market Report View
2009 Used Car Market Report View
2008 Used Car Market Report View
2007 Used Car Market Report View
2006 Used Car Market Report View

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Services

Manheim Consulting: Your Partner for Remarketing Services

Manheim Consulting is dedicated to helping our Commercial and Dealer customer improve their remarketing performance. Our team accesses the extensive database represented by the more than 10 million vehicles posted annually online or run in Manheim auction lanes. We apply data mining, targeted research, competitive benchmarking, and quantitative analyses to provide our clients with unbiased reporting and strategic advice.


Powered by Professionals

Manheim Consulting is built on the knowledge and experience of its team of consultants. Over the years, Manheim Consulting has established itself as a trusted advisor to the automotive industry. Professionals from a diverse set of backgrounds help develop a perspective that is truly unparalleled in the industry.

Got a question? Contact us.


Our Team


Sidbasumanheim


Sidhartha (Sid) Basu
Senior Director of Customer Consulting

Sid joined Manheim Consulting in April 2013. He provides strategic advice and thought leadership to Manheim customers and to the Manheim Customer Management functions. He brings broad consulting experience in driving profitability and efficiency growth, and in leading change in large organizations. Prior to Manheim, he was a Senior Manager in the Ernst & Young Performance Improvement practice. His consulting experience includes assignments at Deloitte Consulting, Capgemini, and Tata Consultancy Services.

Sid has a BS in Accounting from St. Xavier's College, Calcutta, and an MBA from XLRI, Jamshedpur, India. He also has an MBA from Emory University.


Tomwebb


Tom Webb
Chief Economist

Tom Webb joined Manheim as chief economist in 2001, bringing to the position his unique understanding of the automotive retail and wholesale industries. As the chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association for 26 years, Tom was already recognized for his authoritative research and commentary on economic trends and their impact on vehicle demand. At Manheim, Tom continues in his role as commentator on the economy and vehicle markets and is a frequent guest at Manheim client and automotive events, in the media and as a contributor to automotive and remarketing publications.

Tom has a degree in Economics from the University of Wyoming and did graduate work in Economics at Georgetown University.


Nancyhillmanheim


Nancy Hill
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

Nancy Hill joined Manheim Consulting in 2006 and has over 13 years’ experience in the automotive remarketing industry. Her experience includes consulting with customers in the bank, rental, captive finance, dealer and commercial fleet segments, leading initiatives to help improve remarketing strategies. Key projects include recon ROI analysis, footprint optimization, and optimal location recommendations. Additionally, Nancy authored several studies, covering topics such as location/sale day consolidation, rental detail ROI, and understanding which vehicles have the highest success rates in online sales.

Nancy has a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Georgia and an MBA from Mercer University.


Strategy, Research, and Analysis


Alan Massey
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Import OEM, captive finance, dealer remarketing
MBA, BS, University of Georgia

Brock McFaddin
Manager, Marketing Analytics
Specialties: Financial institution, dealer remarketing
BA, MBA, University of Tennessee


Ally Pomeroy
Consultant, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Commercial fleet, rental third-party, dealer remarketing
BA, Wittenburg University