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A unique resource for the remarketing industry

Manheim Consulting informs customers of market trends, provides suggestions for remarketing channel optimization, and develops thought leadership collateral to benefit the remarketing industry.

 
 

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Helping customers accelerate their business performance

Since 2005, Manheim Consulting has conducted research and performance studies for the company’s largest dealer and commercial clients, while providing a broader perspective on the industry at large for those who follow the automotive sector. Our team leverages our industry-leading data set to illuminate new remarketing trends, optimize location or sales channel utilization, benchmark client performance against peers, publish studies on leading practices, and bring macroeconomic trends into remarketing context.

Got a question? Contact us.


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Wholesale Prices Rise Again in March

The strength of wholesale pricing in 2014 has been consistent with the fundamentals of the retail market. In March, new vehicle sales sprung back from a weather-induced stall in January and February. Used vehicle retail sales also picked up, even though those sales were less impacted by the harsh weather. Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) sales, which have hit successive annual highs in each of the past three years, rose 10.9% in the first quarter. That supported late-model used vehicle values – the very segment that many analysts were worried about because of rising wholesale supplies.

Read more

124.4     3.3%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
March 2014

Click to Zoom

January 1995 = 100


Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

Order Now

2014ucmr

Whitepaper-large

Certification Impact on Auction Values

A commercial fleet consignor, with an average retention of 3.2 points below the client’s national average and 2.5 points below the market average, approached Manheim Consulting to see if it could improve retention at an auction in one of the Manheim markets.

Read the full report


Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Publications

Manheim Consulting clients have improved their remarketing performance by challenging our analytical staff. Read the conclusions of just a few of these in-depth studies.


Auto Industry Brief

AutobriefMarch 2014 Auto Industry Brief
Now that the weather has begun to thaw in many parts of the country, it is predictable that analysts will be pointing to every "green shoot" as a harbinger of accelerating growth. We're optimistic that the recovery can continue apace, but would be skeptical about any sign that promises a meaningful quickening in the rate of growth. Most green shoots prove to be weeds. They are quick growers—and, indeed, might even look nice after a harsh winter—but they are nothing to celebrate.

February 2014 Auto Industry Brief
Most forecasters were quick to buy into the notion that 2014 would be a simple repeat of 2013, namely, slow and steady growth.

October 2013
There was little possibility that the economy would meaningfully accelerate in the fourth quarter, so don't blame the government shutdown for the forthcoming lackluster economic reports.

September 2013
More than a few economists were forecasting 3% growth for the second half of this year even after we had already entered it.

August 2013
Aggregate statistics showed the recovery continuing apace in recent months, but there were also clear signs of underlying fissures that may be disruptive (or at least add volatility) to future progress.

July 2013
Major dealer groups increased used unit sales in the second quarter. It was the 16th consecutive quarterly gain.

June 2013
U.S. markets made it quite clear they don’t want rising rates — even if common sense demands them.


Case Studies

CasestudyVehicle Odor Impact on Auction Price
Many consignors struggle with the negative impact vehicle smoke or foul odor has on auction prices. Manheim Consulting quantified the auction price deterioration caused by odor noted on the condition report.

Consignors Increase Returns by Selling Ample Volume Alongside Peers
Manheim Consulting determined that consignors selling at least 20 units per sale at the same time as peers boosted returns and drew potential buyers into the lane.


White Papers

WhitepaperCertification Impact on Auction Values
The case seems to indicate that one way to increase vehicle retention is to certify qualifying vehicles.

Condition Report Impact on Dealer Sales
Condition reports impact three areas of dealer sales: Simulcast reach, the ability to attract buyers, and arbitration rates.

Rental Detail ROI
Manheim Consulting determined the ROI on varying levels of detail service: no detail, wash and vac, and full detail.

Effects of Color on MMR Retention
This study examines if color impacts auction results, which is important to rental and other fleet consignors as these companies have a degree of control over their inventory.

Simulcast Bid Impact Study
Manheim Consulting examines the impacts of online bidding and the main drivers to attract online bids.

Starting Price and Floors Effect on Bids
This paper examined the most effective starting price for vehicles offered online in order to achieve the highest sales price and sales ratios.

Financial Implications of "No Sales" and Multiple Registrations
This white paper analyzes the reduction in transaction prices that results when a vehicle is a "no sale" and is registered in subsequent sales.

InSight ECR and Reconditioning
This white paper demonstrates the improvement of accuracy the Insight ECR decimal point grading system produces when measuring reconditioning returns.

Attributes of Vehicles with High Success in Online Selling
Adding an additional selling channel can increase the number of bids on a unit, driving up sales price while also lowering days to sell, and thus reducing depreciation and holding costs.


Presentations

Tom-webb_smallTom Webb is a frequent speaker at automotive and economic conferences. His PowerPoint presentations enable the reader to understand the impact of macro trends on the vehicle markets. Please visit this website periodically to view Tom's latest presentations.

Residual Risks Residing in the Recesses of the “Recovery”, September 17, 2013

Manheim Market Report: Leveraging Analytics in Remarketing, 2012 National Remarketing Conference

Quarterly Conference Call

Next Conference Call
April 7 at 11am ET

You are invited to join Tom Webb, Manheim's chief economist and the compiler of the Index, as he discusses the major economic and industry trends that have shaped the quarter. Tom will also take your questions following the presentation.

Telephone:

Conf. ID:

Title:

800-946-0709

8038259

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

For questions or to RSVP for the quarterly conference call, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Tom's presentation will be available one hour before the conference call.
View the April Presentation

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold.

The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer's results.


Wholesale Prices Rise Again in March

Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) rose 0.9% in March. This resulted in a Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reading of 124.4 for the month, an increase of 2.2% for the first quarter of 2014, and a rise of 3.3% on a year-over-year basis.

The strength of wholesale pricing in 2014 has been consistent with the fundamentals of the retail market. In March, new vehicle sales sprung back from a weather-induced stall in January and February. Used vehicle retail sales also picked up, even though those sales were less impacted by the harsh weather. Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) sales, which have hit successive annual highs in each of the past three years, rose 10.9% in the first quarter. That supported late-model used vehicle values – the very segment that many analysts were worried about because of rising wholesale supplies.

New vehicle sales: March’s bounceback exceeds expectations. New car and light-duty trucks sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.4 million in March – more than a million units higher than the pace achieved in either January or February. A rebound was anticipated, but it was not expected to be that strong. As such, the sales gain was achieved without the aggressive use of incentives. Current inventory levels and production schedules suggest the market will be able to maintain pricing discipline for a while longer.

Used vehicle sales: from good to better. Total dealer sales of used vehicles were down only marginally in January and February, despite the drag of weather conditions. March sales picked up noticeably. And dealers continue to report that the improvement in their bottom line is even better than the underlying unit numbers would suggest.

Rental risk units: lower volumes, higher prices. Rental risk units flowing back into the wholesale market remained depressed in March after being at low levels in January and February. As with everything else in the economy, blame the weather. Rental car companies took delivery of nearly a half million new vehicles in the first quarter, but high demand in the insurance replacement segment meant defleeting was delayed. Massive recalls and a late Easter suggest the flow back into the wholesale market will continued to be pushed back.

The end result has been high prices and high mileage. In March, average auction prices for rental risk units (both adjusted and unadjusted for mix and mileage) were up year-over-year and sequentially. Average mileage remained above the 40,000 mark for the third consecutive month.

Market class and price tier trends. Pickups, by far, have shown the strongest wholesale pricing – both in recent months and over the past year. Compact cars and luxury cars are the only two major segments down over the past year. And those declines are very modest. With respect to price tiers, the wholesale market is performing well across-the-board.

Tax refunds: February up, March down. As noted last month, tax refunds as of February 14 were up 23%, or $18.7 billion, from their year-ago level. By March 28, however, the increase in total refunds was reduced to less than 3%, or just $5.3 billion. That means, of course, the amount of money flowing back to households in March alone was considerably lower than a year ago. There was, however, no discernible impact on the pricing of units sensitive to these tax flows. Indeed, in recent years we have seen an increased tendency for the impact of tax refunds to be more spread-out as dealers make wider use of downpayment deferral programs.

Tax refund flows do, however, still play a significant role in reducing loan delinquencies. As such, analysts will be keeping a sharp eye on how loan portfolios perform now that the tax season is over.

124.4     3.3%


Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
March 2014

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-linegraph0314

January 1995 = 100

Click to Zoom
Manheimusedvehiclevalueindex-webtable0314

January 1995 = 100



Price Changes for Selective Market Classes

Click to Zoom
Pricechangesforselectivemarket-bargraph0314

March 2014 vs. March 2013


Index Release Dates

Manheim Consulting releases the latest update of its Used Vehicle Value Index on the fifth business day of each month. To receive a monthly reminder about this update, as well as reminders for Tom Webb's quarterly conference calls, please email manheimindex@ketchum.com.

Featured Publications

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
View the Index



2014 Used Car Market Report
Order Now



Manheim Auto Industry Brief
View Now

Auto Industry Factoid

Auto Industry Factoid
by Alan Massey

Vehicles with an Electronic Condition Report (ECR), are three times more likely to receive a bid, and are twice as likely to sell as a vehicle without an ECR.

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Manheim Consulting Blog

Used Car Market Report

The Manheim annual Used Car Market report examines the economic underpinnings of the entire used vehicle market and sector-specific trends that influence the supply and pricing of used vehicles.

This report highlights market conditions and buyer and seller strategies within the used vehicle marketplace, provides an update on digital and mobile technology developments. It also includes an annual look at the various industry components, including dealer, rental, repossessions, leasing, and salvage.

Order Now
2014ucmr

Consulting-ucmr-screenshot

Past Used Car Market Reports

2013 Used Car Market Report Order Now
2012 Used Car Market Report View
2011 Mid-Year Used Car Market Report View
2011 Used Car Market Report View
2010 Used Car Market Report View
2009 Used Car Market Report View
2008 Used Car Market Report View
2007 Used Car Market Report View
2006 Used Car Market Report View

Where to Find Us

March 31-April 2
NVLA Conference

April 14
ARN Auto Conference

Services

Manheim Consulting: Your Partner for Remarketing Services

Manheim Consulting is dedicated to helping our Commercial and Dealer customer improve their remarketing performance. Our team accesses the extensive database represented by the more than 10 million vehicles posted annually online or run in Manheim auction lanes. We apply data mining, targeted research, competitive benchmarking, and quantitative analyses to provide our clients with unbiased reporting and strategic advice.


Powered by Professionals

Manheim Consulting is built on the knowledge and experience of its team of consultants. Over the years, Manheim Consulting has established itself as a trusted advisor to the automotive industry. Professionals from a diverse set of backgrounds help develop a perspective that is truly unparalleled in the industry.

Got a question? Contact us.


Our Team


Sidbasumanheim


Sidhartha (Sid) Basu
Senior Director of Customer Consulting

Sid joined Manheim Consulting in April 2013. He provides strategic advice and thought leadership to Manheim customers and to the Manheim Customer Management functions. He brings broad consulting experience in driving profitability and efficiency growth, and in leading change in large organizations. Prior to Manheim, he was a Senior Manager in the Ernst & Young Performance Improvement practice. His consulting experience includes assignments at Deloitte Consulting, Capgemini, and Tata Consultancy Services.

Sid has a BS in Accounting from St. Xavier's College, Calcutta, and an MBA from XLRI, Jamshedpur, India. He also has an MBA from Emory University.


Tomwebb


Tom Webb
Chief Economist

Tom Webb joined Manheim as chief economist in 2001, bringing to the position his unique understanding of the automotive retail and wholesale industries. As the chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association for 26 years, Tom was already recognized for his authoritative research and commentary on economic trends and their impact on vehicle demand. At Manheim, Tom continues in his role as commentator on the economy and vehicle markets and is a frequent guest at Manheim client and automotive events, in the media and as a contributor to automotive and remarketing publications.

Tom has degrees in Economics from Georgetown University and the University of Wyoming.


Nancyhillmanheim


Nancy Hill
Senior Manager, Customer Consulting

Nancy Hill joined Manheim Consulting in 2006 and has over 13 years’ experience in the automotive remarketing industry. Her experience includes consulting with customers in the bank, rental, captive finance, dealer and commercial fleet segments, leading initiatives to help improve remarketing strategies. Key projects include recon ROI analysis, footprint optimization, and optimal location recommendations. Additionally, Nancy authored several studies, covering topics such as location/sale day consolidation, rental detail ROI, and understanding which vehicles have the highest success rates in online sales.

Nancy has a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Georgia and an MBA from Mercer University.


Strategy, Research, and Analysis


Alan Massey
Manager, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Import OEM, captive finance, dealer remarketing
MBA, BS, University of Georgia

Brock McFaddin
Manager, Marketing Analytics
Specialties: Financial institution, dealer remarketing
BA, MBA, University of Tennessee


Ally Pomeroy
Consultant, Customer Consulting
Specialties: Commercial fleet, rental third-party, dealer remarketing
BA, Wittenburg University